June was another month of movement, but not momentum, in the Fraser Valley market
Sales were nearly flat, up just 1% from May to 1,195 transactions. That’s still 9% below June of last year and 33% below the 10-year seasonal average. Despite some flickers of activity, the market isn’t finding its footing.
Inventory continued to climb, with active listings approaching 11,000, up 2% from May and 30% higher year-over-year. New listings declined 10% from May to 3,618, possibly indicating seller fatigue. The sales-to-active listings ratio remained steady at 11%, holding the region in buyer’s market territory. For context, the market is considered balanced between 12–20%.
The composite Benchmark price fell another 1.2% month-over-month to $951,500. Here’s how that breaks down:
- Detached: $1,458,600, down 1.6% from May and 4.6% year-over-year
- Townhomes: $824,400, down 1.0% from May and 3.1% year-over-year
- Condos: $526,500, down 1.2% from May and 4.5% year-over-year
Average days on market increased again. Detached homes took 35 days to sell on average (up from 34), townhomes 30 days (up from 27), and condos 39 days (up from 33). Median days to sell also climbed: 21 for detached (up from 15), 20 for townhomes (up from 17), and 23 for condos (up from 18). The widening gap between median and average signals that well-priced homes are still moving, but more listings are missing the mark and sitting longer.
Anecdotally, activity has picked up in small pockets. I had to compete on a condo last week, and one of my new listings received and accepted an offer in 7 days. That said, plenty of listings are still sitting with little to no action.
Looking at local dynamics, sell-through rates (STRs) show the stress building. Across most markets, June STRs softened, and failed listings rose, highlighting the gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness.
While some markets, like Chilliwack, saw a bit of recovery month over month thanks to being the most affordable options in the Valley, the majority saw declines in both the Sell Through Rate, as well as the sale prices.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate again in early June, making it three holds in a row. While this stability might nudge hesitant buyers, 5-year bond yields have climbed to nearly 3% from 2.75%, which means fixed mortgage rates aren’t coming down soon, and may even edge up. Stability in rates doesn’t equal affordability.
Nationally, delinquencies remain low, but they’ve started to trend upward, especially in credit cards and car loans. This isn’t alarming yet, but it’s enough to keep buyers cautious. Add rising household debt, rising unemployment, stagnating job growth, and a slowing economy, and the hesitation makes sense.
The federal government recently announced new housing targets and infrastructure pushes, aiming for 500,000 new homes per year. But this plan focuses heavily on publicly funded rentals, not homeownership. It’s a long-term vision, and not a particularly hopeful one for would-be buyers. When the new Minister of Housing openly states that they don’t want home prices to fall, it raises questions.
Why? Because a housing correction could threaten GDP and banking stability. Propping up home prices isn’t just political, it’s economic self-preservation.
Meanwhile, the new GST exemption for first-time buyers purchasing new homes under $750K has launched. But as I break down on my site, it mostly benefits large developers and urban cores, not the average buyer.
So what does it all mean? Movement is happening, but it’s cautious, isolated, and uneven. Unless something shifts soon, we could be heading into a soft summer with continued downward pressure on pricing.
Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s talk about how to navigate this market strategically.
And I’m curious, do you think stability is around the corner, or are we in for more turbulence?
