The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board has released its numbers for May 2026, and after one month of positive momentum, the market has returned to declining prices.
While sales activity remained relatively stable compared to April, the bigger story is what appears to be happening beneath the surface. The pattern we saw develop last year may be repeating itself, and if it does, both buyers and sellers will need to adjust their expectations.
The Numbers From May 2026
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 1,124 sales in May.
That’s up just 0.5% from April but down 5% compared to May 2025, which was already a relatively slow month.
The composite benchmark price fell 0.7% to $893,300 and is now down 7.3% year over year.
Breaking that down by property type:
Detached Homes
Detached homes declined 0.6% month over month to $1,366,500.
Average days on market: 35
Year-over-year change: -7.9%
Townhomes
Townhomes declined 0.3% month over month to $769,500.
Average days on market: 37
Year-over-year change: -7.6%
Condos
Condos saw the largest decline in May after posting the strongest increase in April.
Prices fell 1.5% month over month to $533,000.
Average days on market: 40
Year-over-year change: -8.8%
The condo market continues to show the most downward pressure, particularly as inventory remains elevated and buyers have a growing number of options.
Why I’m Concerned
What concerns me isn’t just the decline itself.
It’s how closely this market is beginning to resemble what happened in 2025.
Last year, the Fraser Valley experienced a weak spring market. As we moved into June, buyer activity slowed, inventory remained high, and prices began to decline steadily throughout the summer.
For roughly five months, benchmark prices fell by approximately 1% per month before stabilizing in the fall and winter.
At the moment, we’re seeing some of those same ingredients:
- Inventory remains elevated
- Sales have not meaningfully increased
- Buyers have plenty of choice
- Consumer confidence remains weak
If this trend continues, it’s possible we see additional monthly declines throughout the summer months.
Of course, no one can predict the future with certainty, but the current trajectory is not encouraging.
The Bigger Economic Picture
Real estate doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
The broader Canadian economy continues to face significant challenges.
Canada has now entered what many economists would describe as a recessionary environment. GDP per capita remains below 2019 levels, meaning Canadians have seen very little real economic growth over the past several years.
While recent employment numbers showed approximately 88,000 jobs added, the details matter.
We’re still down roughly 40,000 jobs compared to a year ago, and many of the recently added positions were seasonal or part-time roles rather than the full-time employment growth that typically drives housing demand.
At the same time, government spending projections continue to rise while revenue forecasts are being revised downward. Combined with high living costs and ongoing affordability concerns, it’s not surprising that consumer confidence remains weak.
When confidence falls, buyers become more cautious.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.
What This Means for Sellers
If you’re thinking about selling, realism is critical.
The market is rewarding properties that stand out.
Homes that are well-presented, located in desirable neighbourhoods, and priced competitively are still attracting interest.
Everything else is facing significant competition.
Sellers need to understand that they aren’t just competing against one or two listings anymore. They’re competing against dozens of alternatives, and buyers have become increasingly selective.
Waiting for the market to improve may not be the best strategy if prices continue to soften through the summer.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, the current market presents opportunities.
If you’re looking at a unique property in a great location and it’s a home you plan to live in and enjoy for years, I don’t believe it’s worth trying to perfectly time the market.
The right property doesn’t come along every day.
However, if you’re shopping in a segment with significant inventory, particularly condos or other highly competitive property types, you have options.
Many buyers are finding themselves in a position where patience may be rewarded.
As inventory builds and competition among sellers increases, additional pricing pressure could create opportunities over the coming months.
Looking Ahead
The next few months will be important.
If sales activity remains sluggish while inventory stays elevated, we could see continued downward pressure on prices through the summer.
I hope that’s not the case.
But based on the data we’re seeing today, I believe buyers and sellers should prepare for the possibility.
The key isn’t to panic. It’s to be pragmatic.
Markets change, and successful buyers and sellers adjust their strategies accordingly.
If you’d like to discuss your specific neighbourhood, property type, or plans for buying or selling, feel free to reach out. Every market behaves a little differently, and local knowledge matters more than ever in a changing environment.
