After 11 straight months of declining prices, we finally saw a small shift in March. Benchmark prices ticked up 0.3%, marking the first month-over-month increase since last spring.
Before getting too excited, it’s important to frame this properly. This is a data point, not a trend.
Sales Activity Picks Up, But Still Below Normal
Sales did improve in March, with 1,007 transactions recorded. That’s a 20% increase from February.
However, zooming out:
- Sales are still down 3% year-over-year
- And 42% below the 10-year seasonal average
So while activity picked up, we’re still operating well below what would be considered a typical spring market.
Inventory Continues to Build
On the supply side, new listings also rose 20% to 3,341. Total active inventory climbed to 9,201 homes.
That puts inventory:
- Up 10% from last month
- 50% above the 10-year seasonal average
When supply continues to outpace demand like this, it creates ongoing pressure on pricing.
Still a Buyer’s Market
The sales-to-active listings ratio came in at 11% in March.
For context:
- A balanced market typically sits between 12% and 20%
- Anything below that leans toward a buyer’s market
Even with improved sales, the Fraser Valley remains firmly in buyer-favoured conditions.
Pricing: Early Signs of Stability
The composite benchmark price now sits at $898,300, up 0.3% from February, but still down year-over-year.
Breaking it down:
- Detached: $1,375,600 (up 0.3% month-over-month, down 8.7% year-over-year)
- Townhomes: $772,700 (up 0.3% month-over-month, down 7.3% year-over-year)
- Apartments: $489,200 (up 0.2% month-over-month, down 9.2% year-over-year)
Across all property types, we’re seeing slight stabilization, but still meaningful declines when viewed over the past year.
What’s Really Happening Under the Surface
One of the clearest indicators right now is days on market.
Inventory is aging. The average days on market for active listings continues to increase.
But here’s the key distinction:
Homes that are actually selling are moving much faster.
In March:
- Detached: 39 days on average (20 days median)
- Townhomes: 36 days on average (19 days median)
- Condos: 43 days on average (20 days median)
Well-priced homes are still moving quickly. The rest are sitting, building inventory, and adding pressure to the market.
Buyers Are Still Negotiating
Sale-to-list price ratios reinforce this trend:
- Detached: ~96% of list price
- Townhomes: ~97.6%
- Condos: ~97%
Buyers are:
- Taking their time
- Comparing options
- Negotiating more aggressively
Multiple offers still happen, but typically only on the best properties. Even then, buyers are less likely to push significantly over asking.
A Slower Finish to the Month
March followed a similar pattern to February.
There was strong activity early in the month as buyers and sellers tried to get ahead of the spring market. But that momentum didn’t hold.
As the month progressed:
- Activity slowed
- More subject-to-sale offers appeared
- Decision timelines stretched
This signals cautious buyer behaviour rather than urgency.
More Listings Are Failing to Sell
Failed and expired listings have increased again.
This matters because many of these properties return to the market, adding even more supply.
If this trend continues while sales stall, it will likely put downward pressure on pricing again.
Interest Rates Still a Factor
On the macro side:
- Five-year bond yields have climbed back to around 3.1%
- The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25%
- The next rate decision is scheduled for April 29
Most buyers have now adjusted to current rates, but borrowing costs remain a limiting factor, especially alongside lower consumer confidence.
What This Means Moving Forward
It’s encouraging to see:
- Sales improving
- Prices stabilizing
But one month of marginal gains after nearly a year of declines does not signal a recovery.
It suggests the market may be trying to find a floor.
Whether that floor holds will depend on one key factor:
Can demand keep up with the level of inventory?
Right now, that’s still uncertain.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers:
You still have time, options, and negotiating power.
For sellers:
Pricing and positioning matter more than ever. The homes that are selling are aligned with today’s market, not last year’s expectations.
If you want to talk about how this applies to your situation, reach out anytime.
And if you’re curious how your specific neighbourhood is performing, you can check out the full breakdown here.
